Independent News and Politics

After many years of anticipating a challenge to Trump, all eyes have turned to Iowa for the opening caucus of the 2020 Democratic primary season.

Recent polls have shown a bit of a last minute surge for Bernie Sanders while Biden has slipped to second. Pete and Warren have held steady so far, but they’ll need to do better than that if they want to pick up the win each campaign desperately wants. And a win in Iowa can be a major moment for any candidate. People like to back a winner, and as of tonight only one candidate will be able to claim that mantle.

If Bernie does win tonight, he’s likely to also pick up the win in New Hampshire next week. The polls there show him with an even larger lead than current indicated in Iowa. Two early victories are still a long way from winning the nomination, but it puts a serious damper on Biden’s electability argument and it would effectively eliminate Pete Buttigieg who has, so far, bet big on those early victories and the implied momentum they bring.

Surprises and last minute attacks

A few odd events have transpired in the last few days. The Des Moines Register poll – considered the gold standard – has broken with its 76 year tradition and pulled their results instead of publishing. Some concerns had arisen that not all choices were read to all participants, and the decision was made at the last minute to bail on the poll rather than publish results that may have tarnished their long established reputation for accuracy.

Biden has also continued waffling along in his own weird way. After aggressively turning away potential supporters who asked for clarifications of his stances, he is now lowering expectations for Iowa performance. The rumor from the trail in Iowa is that his volunteers are mostly no-shows and his campaign has been struggling to provide transportation to the polls. Everyone seems to want the assistance, but no one is willing to lend a hand.

John Kerry was also overheard in Iowa suggesting that he might just have to run for president, himself. While there’s something deeply ironic about the guy who lost to Bush thinking he’s the only one who can stop Trump, he’s attempted to quash these rumors publicly by reaffirming his support for Biden.

Project Veritas has also launched an attack on Warren, but that’s hardly worth mentioning and it’s unlikely that it will have much impact (given both the reputation of the source and the thin nature of the attack content).

Just the first step

Regardless of who wins tonight, the primary nomination process has a long way to go. But for now, all eyes are on Iowa. Pundits will fill volumes tomorrow analyzing and interpreting what happens tonight, and many may even be filling out updates resumes and job applications.

While it’s unlikely that any candidates drop out immediately in response to Iowa’s results (New Hampshire is just next week, after all) it could provide a big clue as to who will be forced to drop within the month. Pete and Warren, in particular, could be extremely vulnerable to lost momentum in the case of under-performance.

April 10, 2012

Well, it is official:  Santorum has dropped out of the 2012 Republican primary race, and Romney stands alone as the only candidate to have won a significant number of state contests.  Although Gingrich and Paul are still technically in the race, there’s no way they can win outside of an incredibly rare and unlikely brokered convention.

However, this victory for Romney is a Pyrrhic one:  every nationwide and state-by-state poll shows Obama winning in November by a comfortable margin.  According to the state electoral tracker at Real Clear Politics, Obama already has the 271 electoral votes required to win re-election.  Even if Romney could carry every single toss up state, it wouldn’t matter in the slightest.

The big shift in this election may be looked back on as the time when the evangelical-led, socially conservative movement finally died.  Before birth control resurfaced, Romney had a slim margin among women voters.  After the ridiculous attack from the right against womens’ reproductive rights, this marginal support turned in to a 2:1 landslide in Obama’s favor.

In a 5-4 ruling, the Supreme Court has upheld strip searches – for literally any arrest.  Forgot to pay a parking fine?  Caught jay-walking?  Maybe the officer just says you were hostile and resisting a lawful order!

It doesn’t matter how trivial the offense is, and it doesn’t matter if the police have no reason to actually suspect that you’re hiding contraband.

The worst part of this ruling isn’t just the mockery the court makes of American civil rights, but rather how the ruling directly undermines the authority of the courts:

In addressing this type of  constitutional claim courts must defer to the judgment of correctional officials unless the record contains substantial evidence showing their policies are an unnecessary or unjustified response to problems of jail security.

Essentially, the Supreme Court of Justice in the United States finds itself powerless to second-guess the actions of correctional officers unless the abused prisoners can deliver evidence that they will surely be prevented from collecting in the first place.

So who can regulate the actions of correctional officers in this land of law and justice?

Apparently, no one.

The first primary event kicks off later today, and the polls seem to indicate that the race has come down to Romney and Ron Paul.

The big money is on Romney, but my hope is on Ron Paul because he’s the only candidate:

• Against the Patriot Act
• Against SOPA
• Against the never-ending wars and imperial foreign policy
• Against the war on drugs
• and in favor of human rights, in general

A few months ago, a resident near Kansas City complained that a SWAT team had taken a bunch of cash and property that wasn’t in any way related to the investigation. Of course, the SWAT team seems to have pocketed the cash because they denied ever having seen it. Then again, maybe the resident was just looking for a quick buck…

Either way, it was enough for internal affairs to call up the FBI to set up an investigation – and nail the KC SWAT team in a staged sting.

From the reports coming out, this is a pretty well documented case of police abusing their authority – something that happens way too often without any kind of proof or consequences for the officers involved. Hopefully, this time, some actual criminal charges will remind these folks that the law applies equally to everyone in this country.

Summed up in a single piece of (probably illegal) public art:

Billions served!

In trying to explain why the incredibly expensive and blatantly corrupt bailouts & stimulus have failed to create jobs or inspire confidence, Bernanke has pulled out the old tired defense of blaming the critics. Except he’s taking it to the 20th century and singling out blogs and bloggers for “identifying … crises.”

Apparently, having people able to speak their mind and find faults in the system is a big problem for the way this guy thinks the economy is supposed to work.

This certainly wins my first annual “Blame someone else” award.

On the up side, he seems to have come to the conclusion that high finance should be treated like a utility, especially if we’re going to constantly be there to bail them out & regulate them like they can never fail.

Just two days after the house tried and failed to pass the Patriot Act through with a legislative fast track, they’ve revisited the vote and chosen to renew it once again.

Who voted for the Patriot Act? Well, a whole bunch of Republicans – including the self-proclaimed Tea Party candidates who claim to be concerned about how powerful our government has become. Unfortunately, their concern for political restraint seems to be isolated to raising the necessary taxes for the wars and paranoid security state they insist on supporting.

But the bill will be back before too long, when it will be able to pass with a simple majority.

Ron Paul gives great arguments, from many key points, about why this particular piece of legislation is a waste of time and a threat to our American liberties:

If only we could give him a few more minutes to talk…

Hello Egypt,

With a hundred ways for things to go wrong, we hope you find the path of greatest peace and freedom.  There are those of us who fear that which could go wrong – more than they fear the reality of oppression and political illusion.

Prove them wrong.  We’ll help any way we can…